Prediction of Alexander Wagner vs Alp Horoz at M15 Antalya 18 Dec 2025

• How do second serve performances compare? Alexander Wagner has won 39.64% of points on his second serve in the last 6 months, while Alp Horoz has achieved a higher success rate with 46.61%, making Horoz stronger in this area.
• Who's more effective in return games? Wagner has captured 50.38% of his opponent's second serve points, outperforming Horoz, who has managed 46.18%. For first serve returns, Wagner and Horoz are almost identical, with Wagner at 27.87% and Horoz at 27.86%.
• Under pressure, Wagner has saved 49.59% of breakpoints, slightly better than Horoz's 46.30%, giving Wagner a marginal edge when saving breakpoints.
• When examining overall performance, Wagner has won 57.89% of matches in the last year (W/L 22/16), compared to Horoz's 50.00% (W/L 27/27), indicating Wagner has been more consistent.
• Looking at preferred surfaces, Wagner excels on Clay with a 57% win rate, whereas Horoz has similar success on Hard courts with a 57% win percentage.
• Analyzing tournament levels, Wagner shows a higher win percentage (59.46%) at the Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments $10K level compared to Horoz's 51.92%.
• Who has faced tougher opponents? Wagner has competed against players with an average rank of 118.42, while Horoz has faced players averaging a 257.52 rank, positioning Wagner as having faced stronger competition.
• In deciding sets, Wagner holds a slight advantage winning 50% of his matches compared to Horoz's 45% over the past year.
• Considering break point conversion, Horoz has the upper hand with a conversion rate of 52.73%, overshadowing Wagner's 34.92%.

Editorial Prediction (December 18, 2025, UTC):

In evaluating the upcoming match between Alexander Wagner and Alp Horoz, several key performance indicators provide a clearer perspective on what to expect. Alp Horoz's superior second serve performance and break point conversion rate offer him distinctive advantages that can influence critical moments in the match.

However, Alexander Wagner demonstrates a commendable proficiency in return games and saving breakpoints, alongside battling against generally more formidable opponents over the last year. His experience competing on tougher competition has likely enhanced his resilience in crucial points.

While Horoz holds tactical advantages in serve-related statistics, Wagner's return game strength, superior match win rate, and experience against higher-ranked players suggest a solid capacity to counterbalance these differences.

Considering these elements, Alexander Wagner is slightly favored to win the upcoming tennis match, although Horoz's strengths could potentially shift the dynamic if leveraged effectively.